Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the MLB season nears its conclusion, the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals gear up for the second game of their interleague series at Truist Park on September 28, 2024. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Braves boasting an 87-71 record and the Royals at 85-75. Atlanta's strong performance has them in a comfortable position, while Kansas City remains in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

In the series opener, the Braves took the win, setting a positive tone for the remainder of the series. The Braves have shown considerable power at the plate, ranking 4th in home runs this season, while the Royals rely more on contact, ranking 7th in team batting average. Atlanta's offensive prowess will be key as they face Seth Lugo, Kansas City's projected starter. Lugo has been impressive with a 16-9 record and a 3.03 ERA, although his 3.85 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved.

Reynaldo Lopez will take the mound for Atlanta. With an 8-5 record and an impressive 2.03 ERA, Lopez has been a reliable arm for the Braves. However, his 3.58 xFIP indicates he might not sustain these numbers. The Royals' offense, known for their low strikeout rate, could pose a challenge for Lopez, who relies heavily on strikeouts.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a 57% chance to win, aligning with the betting odds. While the Braves are favored, the Royals are not far behind, with a 43% win probability. The Braves' bullpen, ranked 9th, and the Royals' bullpen, ranked 10th, should keep the game competitive late. Expect a tightly contested matchup as both teams push for postseason success.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (56.6% compared to 48.2% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Maikel Garcia has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .234 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2127 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2072 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 149 games (+34.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 85 games (+7.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+10.30 Units / 147% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.33 vs Atlanta Braves 4.55

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