Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 7/4/2025
The Kansas City Royals travel to Chase Field on Friday, July 4, 2025, to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kansas City comes into this game with a starting pitching advantage, but neither team has shown enough consistency to be fully trusted either. Here, I will make my Royals vs Diamondbacks prediction for this Independence Day matchup from Phoenix.
Our Royals vs Diamondbacks Pick
Pick: Royals Moneyline (-105)
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Kris Bubic is having a breakthrough season with a 2.25 ERA for the year. He hasn’t received enough run support, though, as he has a 6-6 record despite his strong individual numbers.
Eduardo Rodríguez has struggled this season, with a 5.13 ERA and a losing record. He is giving up over a hit per inning this year, which concerns me against a Royals team with some pop at the top of their lineup.
Bullpen usage
Kansas City’s relief pitching has been solid, ranking sixth in the league in bullpen ERA.
Arizona’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.26.
Recent team streaks
The Diamondbacks have lost two games in a row, splitting their four-game series with the San Francisco Giants.
Kansas City has won two of their last three games, winning their series against the Seattle Mariners.
Best Player Props
Player
Prop
Line
Ketel Marte (ARI)
Total Bases
Over 1.5 (-115)
Jac Caglianone (KC)
Home Runs
Over 0.5 (+750)
Betting Trends & H2H
Kansas City is 21-23 on the road this season, the Diamondbacks are 22-23 at home.
The Royals have gone under the total 60.9% of the time this year.
The Diamondbacks have gone over the total in 54.9% of their games this year.
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas City 4 – Arizona 5
Win Probability: Kansas City 43%, Arizona 57%
Final Thoughts
I’ve been very impressed with the season that Kris Bubic has put together. He is the more reliable of the two starting pitchers in this game and the Diamondbacks aren’t good enough in their bullpen to make up for that disadvantage. I’ll take the Royals to win this game as a slight underdog, as they should move to within a game of the .500 mark on the road for the season.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
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Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
Home›MLB Picks›Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 7/4/2025
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