Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 7/4/2025

The Kansas City Royals travel to Chase Field on Friday, July 4, 2025, to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kansas City comes into this game with a starting pitching advantage, but neither team has shown enough consistency to be fully trusted either. Here, I will make my Royals vs Diamondbacks prediction for this Independence Day matchup from Phoenix.

Our Royals vs Diamondbacks Pick

Pick: Royals Moneyline (-105)

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025 – 1:40 a.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Kris Bubic (KC) vs Eduardo Rodríguez (ARI)
• Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Broadcast: DBACKS.TV (Phoenix), FDSKC/SiriusXM nationally

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Kris Bubic is having a breakthrough season with a 2.25 ERA for the year. He hasn’t received enough run support, though, as he has a 6-6 record despite his strong individual numbers.
• Eduardo Rodríguez has struggled this season, with a 5.13 ERA and a losing record. He is giving up over a hit per inning this year, which concerns me against a Royals team with some pop at the top of their lineup.

Bullpen usage

• Kansas City’s relief pitching has been solid, ranking sixth in the league in bullpen ERA.
• Arizona’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.26.

Recent team streaks

• The Diamondbacks have lost two games in a row, splitting their four-game series with the San Francisco Giants.
• Kansas City has won two of their last three games, winning their series against the Seattle Mariners.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Kansas City is 21-23 on the road this season, the Diamondbacks are 22-23 at home.
• The Royals have gone under the total 60.9% of the time this year.
• The Diamondbacks have gone over the total in 54.9% of their games this year.

Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Model Projection

Score Projection: Kansas City 4 – Arizona 5

Win Probability: Kansas City 43%, Arizona 57%

Final Thoughts

I’ve been very impressed with the season that Kris Bubic has put together. He is the more reliable of the two starting pitchers in this game and the Diamondbacks aren’t good enough in their bullpen to make up for that disadvantage. I’ll take the Royals to win this game as a slight underdog, as they should move to within a game of the .500 mark on the road for the season.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.