Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 7/5/2025

The Kansas City Royals head into Chase Field this Saturday afternoon as underdogs against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Royals won the opening game of this series, putting up nine runs against the Diamondbacks pitching staff. Will we see a repeat performance from the Royals today? Continue reading to get my Royals vs Diamondbacks prediction and find out.

Our Royals vs Diamondbacks Pick

  • Pick: Diamondbacks moneyline (-114)
  • Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Date & Time: Saturday, July 5, 2025 – 4:10 PM ET
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Royals – Michael Wacha (4‑8, 3.62 ERA)
    • Diamondbacks – Ryne Nelson (4‑2, 3.61 ERA)
  • Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
  • Broadcast: ARID and FDSKC

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Both pitchers have been solid going into this game. Michael Wacha and Ryne Nelson have nearly-identical ERAs on the year. But the Diamondbacks have done a better job of keeping losses off of Nelson’s record. Wacha, despite having an ERA below 4.00, is a miserable 4-8 on the year and has deserved better this season.

Bullpen usage

The Royals have a huge bullpen advantage in this series, as their bullpen ERA is way lower than that of the Diamondbacks. We saw the Royals score against the Diamondbacks’ pen on Friday and if that continues, they could get a second straight win in this series.

Recent team streaks

The Royals have won two straight games and three of their last four. Arizona has dropped three straight games and has dropped below the .500 mark for the season because of that.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropPick
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)Total BasesOver 1.5 (+100)
Ryne Nelson (ARI)StrikeoutsOver 3.5 K (-120)
Michael Wacha (KC)StrikeoutsOver 4.5 (+120)

  • KC is 46-43 on the runline this season, Arizona is 41-47.
  • Arizona has gone over the total in 55.4% of their games this season.
  • The Royals won the only matchup between these teams on the season on Friday.

Royals vs Diamondbacks Model Projection

Score Projection: Royals 4 – Diamondbacks 5

Win Probability: Royals 46%, Diamondbacks 54%

Final Thoughts

Arizona has a stronger offense and an effective starter in Nelson, which should make up for their bullpen issues. Kansas City has proven time and time again that they can’t provide enough support to help Wacha rack up wins. I expect the same thing to happen today, as the Diamondbacks should get the win in Phoenix today.


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Home MLB Picks Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 7/5/2025