Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On September 25, 2024, the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals meet for the second game of their interleague series at Nationals Park. The Nationals are in the midst of a tough season with a 69-88 record, while the Royals, sitting at 83-74, boast an above-average performance so far. Yesterday, the Royals came out on top, continuing their push for a solid finish in the standings.

Washington features DJ Herz on the mound, a left-handed pitcher ranked 92nd among starting pitchers according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Herz's 4.30 ERA and 3.69 xFIP suggest he's been unlucky this year, and may be poised for improvement. His strikeout proficiency (28.5% strikeout rate) faces a low-strikeout Royals offense, which ranks 2nd least in strikeouts across the league. Meanwhile, Kansas City counters with Michael Lorenzen, a right-hander who, despite a 3.43 ERA, has a concerning 5.00 xFIP, hinting at potential regression due to his favorable outcomes this season.

Offensively, the Nationals rank poorly as the 23rd best offense in MLB, heavily relying on their excellent speed, leading the league in stolen bases. Despite this, their low power numbers could play into Lorenzen's high-flyball tendencies, as Washington ranks 29th in home runs. Joey Gallo has been a recent bright spot for Washington, hitting .333 with two homers and six RBIs over the last week.

Kansas City's offense ranks 14th overall with a respectable 7th best team batting average, providing a balanced attack. Bobby Witt Jr. stands out with a stellar .471 average over the past week. The Nationals bullpen, ranking just 28th, will be tested against a Royals team buoyed by their 11th-ranked bullpen, providing Kansas City with a slight edge in tight situations.

While the Royals have a slightly better implied probability of winning at 52%, this matchup shapes up as a competitive contest, with each team's strengths and weaknesses clashing in intriguing ways.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Michael Lorenzen to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 68 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals hitters as a unit have been one of the best in MLB this year (4th-) in regard to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

With 9 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, DJ Herz will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Crews has had some very poor luck this year. His .262 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+21.95 Units / 28% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.27 vs Washington Nationals 3.92

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