Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers Pick For 6/22/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Jon Gray - Rangers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals gear up for the second game of their series on June 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Rangers, sporting a 35-40 record, are having a below-average season, while the Royals, at 42-35, are performing above expectations.

The pitching matchup features Jon Gray for the Rangers and Michael Wacha for the Royals. Gray, with a solid 3.31 ERA this season, has been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.61 xERA suggests regression could be on the horizon. Nonetheless, Gray is currently ranked the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an above-average option on the mound. Wacha, on the other hand, holds a 4.24 ERA that belies his true performance; his 3.60 xERA and 3.62 FIP suggest he's been unlucky and may improve. Despite this, Wacha's projected to pitch only 2.5 innings on average today, indicating potential bullpen involvement early.

Kansas City's offense, ranked 14th in overall talent, is slightly better than Texas' 22nd-ranked lineup. The Royals' ability to steal bases (7th in MLB) could play a pivotal role in this game, especially against a Rangers team that struggles in this area. However, the Rangers' bullpen, ranked 12th, is notably stronger than the Royals' 25th-ranked relief corps, which could be crucial in a close game.

Josh H. Smith has been a bright spot for the Rangers recently, hitting .400 with a 1.338 OPS over the last week. For the Royals, MJ Melendez has been equally impressive, batting .389 with a 1.172 OPS in the same period.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a 59% chance of winning today, significantly higher than the 54% implied by betting markets. This suggests value in betting on Texas. With Jon Gray on the mound and a stronger bullpen, the Rangers might have the edge despite their overall struggles this season.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has spiked 1.3 mph this year (92.7 mph) over where it was last year (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

In terms of his home runs, Vinnie Pasquantino has had some very poor luck this year. His 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jon Gray to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

In the past 14 days, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+15.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 72 games (+7.34 Units / 7% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+17.70 Units / 43% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.91 vs Texas Rangers 4.54

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