Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 7/9/2024

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals head to Busch Stadium on July 9, 2024, to face the St. Louis Cardinals in an interleague matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Royals boasting a 49-43 record and the Cardinals close behind at 48-42. This game marks the first in the series between these Missouri rivals, and it promises to be a tight contest.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals is right-hander Andre Pallante. While Pallante has an average ranking as the 100th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, he has shown flashes of quality this season, evidenced by his 4-3 Win/Loss record and a solid 4.00 ERA. However, Pallante's low strikeout rate (18.7%) could be a cause for concern against a Royals offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in terms of least strikeouts. On the flip side, Pallante’s ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.5 today—could keep the Cardinals competitive.

The Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, who is having a slightly better season, ranked as the 70th best starting pitcher. Wacha's 5-6 Win/Loss record and 3.74 ERA suggest he has been above average, though he, too, struggles with allowing hits and walks, projected at 5.2 and 1.7 respectively.

Offensively, the Royals have slight edges in both batting average (12th) and team home runs (17th) compared to the Cardinals (16th and 25th, respectively). Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. has been red-hot, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over the last week, including 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. The Cardinals will look to Nolan Gorman, who has also been on a tear with a .478 batting average and 1.239 OPS over the same period.

The Cardinals hold an edge in bullpen strength, ranked 5th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Royals' bullpen is a weak spot, sitting at 25th. This disparity could prove crucial in a game expected to be close, as indicated by the current betting odds which give the Cardinals a slight edge with a -130 moneyline, translating to a 54% implied win probability.

With both teams having average offenses and the Cardinals possessing a much stronger bullpen, this game could hinge on the late innings. Given the tight odds and the strengths of each team, expect a competitive and potentially thrilling opener to the series at Busch Stadium.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph rise from last season's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Adam Frazier has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kansas City grades out as the #30 club in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that flyball hitters have a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante and his 59.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's game matching up with 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.8-mph dropping to 81-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.04 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.11

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