Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Pirates sit at 70-77, struggling through a below-average season, while the Royals boast a solid 81-67 record, marking them as an above-average contender this year. This matchup holds significance as it is the second game in their series, and the Royals will look to build on their recent success.

In their last game, the Royals faced the Pirates, and the Royals got an 8-3 win. Kansas City has been riding high on their offensive performance, especially with Salvador Perez leading the charge. Over the past week, Perez has been on fire, batting .526 with 10 hits and 9 RBIs in just 6 games. This offensive prowess could pose a challenge for Pirates' right-hander Mitch Keller, who has had an average season with an ERA of 3.85 and a Power Ranking of #117 among starting pitchers.

Keller is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, but his struggles with hits—projecting to allow 5.8—could be detrimental against a Royals offense that ranks 12th best in the league. Conversely, Michael Wacha, also a right-handed pitcher for Kansas City, has been performing well this season with a 3.34 ERA and a Power Ranking of #69, indicating he’s above average.

With both teams’ bullpens ranking around the middle of the pack—Pittsburgh at #19 and Kansas City at #22—this matchup could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. The Pirates' offense, currently ranked 28th, will need to find a way to capitalize on Wacha’s high flyball rate, especially given their struggles with power this season. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive encounter, but the Royals' offensive capabilities may give them the edge in this interleague clash.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2190 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2137 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has had bad variance on his side this year. His 20.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.6 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.45

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