Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Pirates sit at 70-78, struggling through a below-average season, while the Royals boast an impressive 82-67 record, indicating a strong campaign. This matchup marks the third game in the series, with the previous game seeing the Royals take the win.

On the mound, the Pirates will send out Jared Jones, while the Royals counter with Brady Singer. Singer has had a solid season, ranking as the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ERA stands at an impressive 3.42, though his 4.48 xERA suggests he may not maintain this level of success moving forward. Interestingly, Singer is a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in MLB, particularly in home runs.

The Pirates' offense has struggled significantly this season, ranking 28th overall and 26th in home runs. In contrast, the Royals have shown more offensive prowess, ranking 12th in MLB. Despite these disparities, projections indicate that the Pirates could score an average of 4.30 runs in this game, which is slightly higher than their implied team total of 4.00 runs.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets reflect a close contest, as both teams' moneylines are currently set at -110. Given the Pirates' recent performance, highlighted by Jared Triolo's notable contributions, they may have a better shot than their record suggests.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer has utilized his sinker 9.9% less often this season (41.2%) than he did last season (51.1%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

When it comes to his batting average, Adam Frazier has had some very poor luck this year. His .205 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .251.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among all starters, Jared Jones's fastball velocity of 96.6 mph grades out in the 97th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Billy Cook, Joey Bart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.32 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.3

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