Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics Pick & Prediction – 6/18/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on June 18, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum, the two teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Athletics, struggling with a 26-48 record, aim to turn their season around, while the Royals, sitting at 41-32, are enjoying a good season and looking to continue their success.

The Athletics will send left-handed pitcher Hogan Harris to the mound. Harris, despite a sparkling 2.49 ERA, has been somewhat fortunate according to his 4.07 xFIP, indicating that regression could be on the horizon. Harris has started just three games this season and is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 4.8 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 4.1 batters. His below-average projections could spell trouble against a solid Royals lineup.

Kansas City counters with right-hander Alec Marsh, who has been serviceable with a 3.63 ERA. However, his 4.44 xERA suggests he too has benefited from some luck. Marsh is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 5.8 batters. Given the Athletics' offensive struggles, ranking 28th overall, Marsh might find some success, despite his peripheral indicators.

Offensively, the Athletics have been abysmal, ranking 29th in team batting average and 27th in stolen bases. However, they do boast some power, ranking 5th in team home runs. JJ Bleday has been a bright spot, hitting .478 with a 1.208 OPS over the last week.

On the other side, the Royals' offense ranks 10th overall, 9th in batting average, and 6th in stolen bases. Bobby Witt Jr. has been their standout performer recently, batting .417 with a .962 OPS over the last week.

The Athletics' bullpen, ranked 6th, could be a key factor if Harris exits early. In contrast, the Royals' bullpen struggles, ranked 25th, could give the Athletics some opportunities late in the game.

With the Royals favored at -135 and an implied win probability of 55%, they seem poised to capitalize on Oakland's struggles. However, the Athletics will look to their power hitters and solid bullpen to keep this matchup competitive.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Alec Marsh's 2517-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 93rd percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Since the start of last season, Nelson Velazquez's 21.1% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals (21.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Compared to the average starter, Hogan Harris has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -6.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

This season, there has been a decline in Miguel Andujar's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.63 ft/sec last year to 25.85 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games (+12.54 Units / 13% ROI)
• Abraham Toro has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+10.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.27 vs Oakland Athletics 4.04

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