Royals vs Yankees ALDS Game 1 Prediction For 10/5/2024

• Date: October 5, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Royals vs Yankees Game 1 Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 1 Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals kick off their American League Division Series matchup on October 5, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees come in as big favorites, boasting a powerful lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for home runs this season. Their offense, ranked 3rd overall, will look to capitalize on Michael Wacha's tendency to give up fly balls, possibly turning them into home runs. Wacha, projected to pitch 4.3 innings, has been solid this year with a 3.35 ERA, but his 4.14 xFIP suggests he's been a bit fortunate and could regress.

Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the Yankees, bringing his 8-5 record and strong 3.41 ERA. While he's ranked as the 30th best starting pitcher, his 3.99 xFIP hints at some luck as well. Cole's projections for the day include 5.2 innings pitched and 2.1 earned runs allowed, showing a solid, albeit average, performance. However, the Yankees' bullpen, ranked 12th, will be ready to support if necessary.

The Royals' offense, ranked 14th, will need to find a way to break through against Cole. While they're middle of the pack in home runs, their ability to steal bases, ranking 10th, could add pressure on the Yankees' defense. Michael Massey has been a standout for Kansas City recently, hitting .333 with a 1.051 OPS over the last week, and will be a key player to watch.

With the Yankees holding a 64% implied win probability, they are expected to take advantage of their home field and powerful lineup. However, the Royals, despite being underdogs, have shown they can compete and will look to upset the odds in this opening game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Michael Wacha is projected to throw 76 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 3rd-weakest projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Gerrit Cole in the 90th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 104 games (+19.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 94 games (+12.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.10 Units / 20% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.89 vs New York Yankees 4.79

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