Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 11, 2024, both teams are in solid positions within the American League, with the Yankees holding a record of 83-62 and the Royals at 80-66. Despite their strong seasons, the Yankees are coming off a disappointing 5-0 loss to the Royals just a day prior, which marked a rare shutout for their offense, ranked 2nd best in MLB.

In this matchup, the Yankees will rely on Luis Gil, who has been a consistent performer this season with a 3.24 ERA and a solid win-loss record of 13-6. Gil's ability to strike out batters is noteworthy, boasting a 27.7 K%, though he faces a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone team in MLB. This could present a challenge for Gil, as his high strikeout rate may not be as effective against such a disciplined lineup. Furthermore, Gil's control issues, reflected in his 12.5 BB%, might be tested against a Royals team that ranks low in walks.

On the other side, Kansas City will send Cole Ragans to the mound. Ragans has been impressive this season, holding a 3.33 ERA and an elite status in the league as the 14th best starting pitcher. He has been effective in his last outing, pitching 6 innings with no earned runs. However, he also has a tendency to allow hits and walks, which could be exploited by the Yankees' powerful lineup.

The projections suggest that the Yankees are favored in this game, with an implied team total of 4.27 runs. With their potent offense and Gil on the mound, the Yankees are expected to bounce back from their recent loss and capitalize on their home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average starter, Cole Ragans has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 7.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 6 hitters who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Luis Gil should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 88 games (+22.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.40 Units / 72% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.02 vs New York Yankees 4.67

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