Kansas City Royals at New York Mets Best Bet – 4/12/2024

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Luis Severino - Mets
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -200, Mets -1.5 170
• Money Line: Royals 105, Mets -125
• Total (Over/Under):8 -115

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 47%
• New York Mets - 53%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 46.15%
• New York Mets - 53.85%

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup scheduled for April 12, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Kansas City Royals at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 5-7, are having a tough season so far, while the Royals are enjoying a great start with a record of 9-4.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Severino, who has a 0-1 record this year with a decent ERA of 3.60. Despite his below-average ranking among MLB starting pitchers, Severino's peripheral indicator suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound. Wacha has been impressive this season with a 1-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.25. However, his peripheral indicator suggests that he has been lucky and may not be able to sustain his performance.

Both teams have shown average offensive performances this season, with the Mets ranking 23rd and the Royals ranking 12th in MLB. However, the Mets have a slight advantage in team home runs, ranking 11th compared to the Royals' 26th ranking in that category. The Royals, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in MLB, while the Mets rank 15th.

According to the current odds, the Mets are favored to win with a moneyline of -125, implying a 53% win probability. The Royals have a moneyline of +105, indicating a 47% win probability. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, which is an average projection.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Mets and the successful Royals. With Severino's potential for improvement and the Mets' slight advantage in power hitting, they may have a chance to overcome the Royals' strong start to the season. However, the Royals' solid bullpen and Wacha's early success could provide them with an edge. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Recording 16.9 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Michael Wacha places him the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Salvador Perez (the Royals's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has posted a 5.73 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the variables most within a pitcher's control) since the start of last season, checking in at the 11th percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Harrison Bader has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly lately, putting up a -25° angle on such balls over the last 14 days.

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games at home (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+12.10 Units / 67% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals 4.4 vs New York Mets 4.48

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