Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 8/12/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals kick off their series on August 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested American League Central division. The Twins currently hold a record of 65-52, while the Royals are just slightly behind at 65-53. This matchup is crucial as both teams are having solid seasons, and every win counts as they eye potential playoff spots.

In their previous games, the Twins lost to the Cleveland Guardians by a score of 5-3, while the Royals enjoyed a convincing 8-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Twins will look to rebound from that loss, with Pablo Lopez projected to take the mound. Lopez has been a solid contributor this season, ranking as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, despite a 4.74 ERA that suggests he’s had some bad luck. His 3.32 xFIP indicates he might perform better in the future. On the flip side, Brady Singer of the Royals, who has a strong 3.03 ERA, will also be looking to build on his performance after allowing four earned runs in six innings during his last start.

Offensively, the Twins rank 6th in MLB, showcasing an impressive lineup. Their best hitter, Willi Castro, has had a productive season, while Byron Buxton has been on fire lately, boasting a .333 batting average and 1.301 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Royals have Bobby Witt Jr. leading their offense, who has also been a standout performer, hitting .381 with 8 RBIs in his last five games.

The leading MLB projection system suggests that the Twins are favored in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. This game promises to be an engaging contest, with both teams eager to gain an edge in the standings.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average pitcher, Brady Singer has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Hunter Renfroe is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has utilized his four-seam fastball 5.4% more often this year (39.9%) than he did last year (34.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Matt Wallner has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.6-mph to 105.4-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Minnesota Twins have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 113 games (+9.44 Units / 6% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.32 vs Minnesota Twins 4.67

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