Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 6/16/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On June 16, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Kansas City Royals at Dodger Stadium in the third game of their interleague series. The Dodgers, with a stellar 43-29 record, are enjoying a great season, while the Royals, at 41-31, are also performing well. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers and Brady Singer for the Royals.

Tyler Glasnow, ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB by the leading projection system THE BAT X, brings an elite skill set to the mound. With a 3.24 ERA and a 2.40 xFIP, Glasnow has been somewhat unlucky this year and is expected to perform even better going forward. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 7.8 batters, and issuing just 1.3 walks. His high strikeout rate (34.5%) will be tested against a Royals lineup that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts.

Brady Singer, on the other hand, has a solid 3.30 ERA but his 4.59 expected ERA suggests he has been fortunate this season. Singer projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.5 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and walking 1.8. His high groundball rate (52%) might help him contain the powerful Dodgers offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs.

Offensively, the Dodgers are a juggernaut, ranking 1st overall in MLB. They also rank 3rd in batting average and home runs. Andy Pages has been their standout hitter over the past week, batting .364 with a 1.008 OPS. The Royals' offense, ranked 10th, is no slouch either, with Kyle Isbel hitting .375 with a .944 OPS over the last week.

The Dodgers are heavy favorites with a -250 moneyline and an implied win probability of 69%. With their elite pitcher on the mound and a potent offense, they are well-positioned to secure a win against the Royals.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer's 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 25th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nick Loftin's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 27.23 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.82 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Bobby Witt Jr. has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starter, Tyler Glasnow has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.9 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball bats like Mookie Betts generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez, Cavan Biggio).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+10.44 Units / 10% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+17.20 Units / 41% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.06 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.79

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