Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers Prediction For 8/2/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on August 2, 2024, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Tigers, with a record of 52-58, are currently struggling and rank 26th in MLB for offensive performance. In contrast, the Royals, boasting a 61-49 record, are enjoying a solid season and sit firmly in the middle of the pack offensively, ranked 12th overall.

In their last matchup, the Tigers faced off against the Royals and fell short, continuing their below-average season. This game marks the second in the series, and the Tigers will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal has been nothing short of exceptional this year, posting a 12-3 record and an impressive 2.35 ERA, ranking him 1st among all starting pitchers in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, he faces a unique challenge against the Royals' low-strikeout offense, which could limit his ability to capitalize on his strikeout strength.

On the other side, Kansas City will counter with Cole Ragans, who has had a solid season with a 3.37 ERA and a 7-7 record. While Ragans ranks 14th among starting pitchers, his projections suggest he could outperform his current numbers, as he has been somewhat unlucky this year.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs and both teams showing weaknesses, particularly in their offensive output, this matchup could come down to which pitcher can better navigate the opposing lineup. The Tigers’ recent struggles and their mediocre offensive ranking make it difficult to predict a strong showing against a Royals team that has been performing well.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average starter, Cole Ragans has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 7.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.284) implies that Freddy Fermin has experienced some positive variance this year with his .344 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Kansas City grades out as the #29 group of hitters in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (41.1% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (53.4 compared to 48.1% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Justyn-Henry Malloy is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Detroit Tigers batters jointly have been one of the worst in the league this year ( 10th-worst) as it relates to their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+9.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.75 vs Detroit Tigers 3.83

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