Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies Prediction For 7/5/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies, reeling from a tough season at 30-57, host the Kansas City Royals at Coors Field on July 5, 2024. The Rockies will look to improve their fortunes in this Interleague matchup against the Royals, who are having an above-average season at 48-41. This game marks the first in the series between the two teams.

Kyle Freeland takes the mound for the Rockies. Freeland, a left-handed pitcher, has struggled significantly this season with a 7.94 ERA and an 0-3 record across six starts. His 5.24 xFIP, however, suggests his true performance has been better than his ERA indicates. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Freeland is ranked as the 231st best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 18th overall, will need to provide ample support to give Freeland a chance.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with lefty Cole Ragans, who has been a bright spot with a 3.33 ERA and a 5-6 record in 18 starts. Ragans is ranked 15th best among starting pitchers and has been slightly unlucky according to his 2.64 FIP. His high strikeout rate (29.8 K%) bodes well against a Rockies lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 3rd most in the league.

Offensively, the Royals hold a slight edge, ranking 15th overall compared to the Rockies' 18th. Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout for Kansas City, boasting a .455 batting average and 1.409 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Brenton Doyle has been the Rockies' best hitter recently, hitting .375 with four home runs and seven RBIs in the last seven games.

Both teams have struggled with their bullpens, with the Rockies ranked 23rd and the Royals 27th. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, reflected by the game total set at 10.5 runs.

The Rockies, despite being heavy underdogs (+155), have an implied team total of 4.55 runs. Meanwhile, the Royals are strong favorites (-180) with an implied team total of 5.95 runs. Bettors should keep an eye on how each team’s bullpen performs, as late-game scoring could be the difference in this matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's 2540-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 96th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 14th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Generating 14.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Kyle Freeland places him the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Elias Diaz has been lucky this year. His .340 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .274.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+13.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 37% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 6.52 vs Colorado Rockies 5.06

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