Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Kansas City Royals in an intriguing interleague matchup on August 18, 2024. With the Reds currently sitting at 60-63, they are having an average season, while the Royals boast a solid 68-55 record, marking them as a competitive force this year. Both teams are looking to gain momentum in the series; this will be the third game between them.

In their previous outing, the Royals came out on top, showcasing their offensive prowess. However, the Reds are set to provide a significant challenge as Andrew Abbott takes the mound. Abbott, despite a ranking of 135th among MLB starters, has had his moments this season. He holds a Win/Loss record of 10-9 with a solid ERA of 3.59. Nonetheless, his xFIP of 4.91 suggests he may have been benefiting from the circumstances around him, indicating that he could face difficulties against a Royals lineup that ranks 12th in overall offense.

On the other side, Brady Singer takes the hill for Kansas City. With an ERA of 3.32, he’s proven to be an above-average starter, although his 70th rank in Power Rankings reflects that he still faces challenges as well. The projections suggest Abbott may struggle against a low-strikeout Royals offense that has the second fewest strikeouts in the league, potentially playing into Kansas City's hands.

As for the hitters, the Reds' Spencer Steer has been a bright spot recently, leading the team with an impressive 1.034 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has shined for the Royals, boasting a staggering .444 batting average and a 1.601 OPS during the same period. With an expected game total set at 9.5 runs, this match promises to feature plenty of offensive action, making it a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer has used his sinker 9.5% less often this season (41.6%) than he did last season (51.1%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season's 90.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

As a team, Kansas City Royals batters have done poorly as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Kansas City (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 111 games (+10.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 32 games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.54 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.79

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