Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On August 16, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Kansas City Royals at Great American Ball Park in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Reds are currently sitting at 60-61, while the Royals are in a better position at 66-55, showcasing an above-average season. The stakes are high for the Reds, who are looking to make a push for a Wild Card spot despite their struggles.

In their last outing, the Reds beat the St. Louis Cardinals while the Royals are coming off of a win over the Minnesota Twins. The Royals, while not elite, have been performing well and boast a solid offense ranked 12th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds rank 16th overall, with a concerning 27th ranking in team batting average.

Nick Martinez is projected to take the mound for Cincinnati, and he brings a respectable 3.16 ERA this season, ranking him as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 3.95 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and he’ll need to navigate a Royals lineup that can capitalize on mistakes. Martinez projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, but he has struggled with hits and walks, which could be a vulnerability.

On the other side, Kansas City's Michael Lorenzen has had a rough season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB with a 3.79 ERA and a high 5.03 xFIP. He’s projected to pitch 4.8 innings and may find it tough against a Reds offense that can strike out frequently.

With the Reds favored at -140 and an implied team total of 5.07 runs, they will need to capitalize on their home advantage and find a way to break out of their recent slump against a Royals team that has shown it can score runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Michael Lorenzen is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-most of the day.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Despite posting a .421 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had some very good luck given the .046 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .375.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Kansas City grades out as the #28 squad in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (41.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Martinez must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 61.1% of the time, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 107 games (+10.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.51 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.55

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