Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Kansas City Royals on August 17, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Great American Ball Park. The Reds (60-62) are having an average season and are looking to gain momentum, while the Royals (67-55) are enjoying an above-average campaign. In their last game, the Reds faced a setback, losing 7-1 to the Royals in a dominant performance from Kansas City.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been effective this season with a 9-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.99 over 19 games. The projections suggest that Lodolo will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs. However, his tendency to give up 5.8 hits and 1.5 walks per game could be a concern against a Royals lineup that ranks 12th in MLB offensively.

Michael Wacha, the Royals' right-hander, is projected to counter Lodolo. Wacha has a respectable 9-6 record and an impressive ERA of 3.50 over 21 starts. Although his xFIP of 4.27 suggests he might be due for some regression, he has shown the ability to limit damage, projecting to allow only 2.9 earned runs today. Wacha's low strikeout rate could work to his advantage against a Reds offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts.

Offensively, the Reds rank 16th in MLB, but their batting average stands at a troubling 27th. In contrast, the Royals have a slightly better batting average, ranking 11th. The Reds' best hitter over the last week, Spencer Steer, has been productive, posting a .294 batting average with 7 RBIs, while Bobby Witt Jr. has been a standout for the Royals, hitting an impressive .500.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, this matchup appears to be closely contested, and the Reds' current moneyline of -130 suggests they are favored to win. However, given the Royals' recent form and Wacha's capabilities, this game could swing either way.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.5-mph jump from last year's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Hunter Renfroe is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Collectively, Kansas City Royals bats have struggled when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 3rd-worst in baseball.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 83.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 111 games (+10.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.32 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.33

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