Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 7/12/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals prepare to face off at Fenway Park on July 12, 2024, both teams come in with similar records and something to prove. The Red Sox sit at 51-41, having a solid season, while the Royals, slightly trailing at 51-43, are also performing well above expectations. This game marks the beginning of a new series, setting the stage for an exciting American League matchup.

Starting on the mound for the Red Sox will be right-hander Cooper Criswell, who has shown flashes this season but has struggled with consistency. Criswell's ERA stands at 4.15 over 12 starts, with a Win/Loss record of 3-3. However, his xERA of 3.61 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Criswell is expected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.0 walks while striking out 3.6 batters. These numbers don't paint a rosy picture, but they do hint at the potential for improvement.

Opposing him is Cole Ragans, a left-handed ace for Kansas City ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Ragans boasts a stellar 3.28 ERA through 19 starts, despite an underwhelming 5-6 record. His 2.74 FIP indicates he's been unfortunate this season, and he's projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allow 2.6 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.9 walks while striking out 6.7 batters. With a high strikeout rate (29.7 K%) going up against a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently (#3 most strikeouts in MLB), Ragans has a favorable matchup.

Offensively, the Red Sox have the edge, ranking 8th in overall offense, 8th in team batting average, and 6th in stolen bases. Rafael Devers has been particularly hot, posting a .304 batting average and a 1.099 OPS over the last week. The Royals, on the other hand, rank 15th in overall offense and home runs but excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th. Bobby Witt Jr. has been their standout hitter recently, batting .429 with a 1.028 OPS over the past week.

Both teams have bullpen struggles, with the Red Sox ranking 23rd and the Royals 22nd in the Power Rankings. This could turn the game into a late-inning battle, where timely hitting and managerial decisions might play a critical role.

Given the advanced stats and projections, the Royals may have a slight advantage on the mound, but the Red Sox's potent offense and home-field advantage could tip the scales in their favor. It promises to be an intriguing contest,”--/e amount<

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Cole Ragans's fastball spin rate of 2541 rpm is in the 96th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 94.9-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Cooper Criswell has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

When it comes to his home runs, Rafael Devers has been very fortunate this year. His 36.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.3.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 86 games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
• Cole Ragans has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 37% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.24 vs Boston Red Sox 4.63

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