Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 7/14/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals are set to face off in the third game of their series on July 14, 2024, at Fenway Park. As both teams continue to have solid seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 52-42 record and the Royals close behind at 52-44, fans can anticipate a competitive American League matchup. The Red Sox narrowly edged the Royals in yesterday's game, setting the stage for another tight contest.

The Red Sox, with the 8th best offense in MLB by various metrics, will rely heavily on their lineup's power and consistency. Their impressive rankings in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases highlight a balanced offense. Wilyer Abreu has been a standout recently, boasting a .313 batting average, 1.181 OPS, two home runs, and seven RBIs over his last six games.

The Royals' offense, while not as potent, ranks 15th overall but has shown strength in team stolen bases (7th) and a respectable batting average (11th). MJ Melendez has been their top performer lately, contributing three home runs, five RBIs, and a 1.089 OPS over the past week.

Starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Brady Singer will take the mound for the Red Sox and Royals, respectively. Bello is a right-hander with a 9-5 record and a high 5.40 ERA but an encouraging 3.68 xFIP, suggesting he has been unlucky and could improve. On the other side, Singer, also a righty, has a solid 2.93 ERA, though his 3.60 xFIP indicates he may regress.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Bello to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 6.2 hits, 1.3 walks, and striking out 5.0 batters. For Singer, projections are 5.5 innings, 3.2 earned runs, 6.3 hits, 1.6 walks, and 5.1 strikeouts.

The pitching duel might be more evenly matched than initial numbers suggest. Despite higher overall offensive power, Boston's bullpen, ranked 27th, could be a potential vulnerability. Kansas City's bullpen fares slightly better at 21st, but still poor.

Betting markets see the Red Sox as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130 (54% implied win probability), while the Royals sit at +110 (46%). Boston's team total is pegged at a very high 4.97 runs, while Kansas City's is also high at 4.53 runs. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, expect both offenses to have their moments in what should be a closely contested affair.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Recording 93.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Brady Singer ranks in the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Adam Frazier's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.2-mph EV last year has dropped to 84.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has gone to his non-fastballs 14.9% more often this year (58%) than he did last season (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Bats such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5 vs Boston Red Sox 5.15

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