Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the MLB season winds down, the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals find themselves in a tight race for playoff spots, adding extra intrigue to their matchup on September 27, 2024, at Truist Park. Both teams have had above-average seasons, with the Braves holding an 86-71 record and the Royals close behind at 85-74. This game marks the beginning of an interleague series between these two competitive squads.

The Braves will send their ace, Max Fried, to the mound. Fried, a left-hander, has been nothing short of elite this season, ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a solid ERA of 3.42 and a projection to pitch six strong innings, Fried aims to keep the Royals' bats at bay. However, he may need to overcome his tendency to allow hits and walks, a potential vulnerability against Kansas City's 7th-ranked team batting average.

On the other side, Brady Singer takes the hill for the Royals. While Singer's ERA of 3.73 is respectable, his xERA suggests he's been fortunate this year. Singer's high groundball rate could be his saving grace against a powerful Braves lineup that ranks 4th in home runs. The Royals' offense, ranked 14th overall, will look to capitalize on any mistakes Fried might make.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a 63% chance of winning, slightly higher than the implied probability of 64% from betting odds. This could indicate a slight edge for Atlanta, especially with Michael Harris II's recent hot streak. Over the last week, Harris has sported a .579 batting average and a 1.474 OPS, making him a potential game-changer.

With both teams vying for postseason positions, this series opener promises to be a compelling contest. The Braves' offensive power and Fried's elite pitching could be the deciding factors, but the Royals are not to be underestimated as they bring their own strengths to the table.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starters, Brady Singer's fastball velocity of 91.7 mph ranks in the 22nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season's 90.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Max Fried (52.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Kansas City's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, posting a .400 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .348 — a .052 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 147 games (+34.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 away games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Gio Urshela has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 72% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.62 vs Atlanta Braves 4.39

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