Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/19/2024

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 -110, Nationals 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Astros -170, Nationals 145
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 61%
• Washington Nationals - 39%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 60.99%
• Washington Nationals - 39.01%

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the Washington Nationals, with an 8-10 record this season, will take on the Houston Astros, who are struggling with a 6-14 record. The game will be played at Nationals Park, where the Nationals will have the home-field advantage. This interleague matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gore ranks as the #43 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started three games, with a perfect 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive 2.81 ERA. However, his 3.45 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Gore is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters.

The Astros will counter with right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander, who is ranked #34 in our Power Rankings. Verlander has a 4.4 inning average projection and is expected to allow 1.8 earned runs while striking out 4.2 batters. However, his hits and walks projections are not favorable, as he is expected to allow 3.6 hits and 1.2 walks on average.

In terms of offensive performance, the Nationals rank as the #20 best offense in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking #6 out of 30 teams, but struggle in home runs, ranking #29. On the other hand, the Astros boast the #3 best offense in MLB, with strong rankings in team batting average (#14) and home runs (#9).

In the last seven games, the Nationals' best hitter has been Jesse Winker, who has recorded 11 hits, 6 runs, 2 home runs, 1 stolen base, and an impressive batting average of .478. Meanwhile, the Astros' best hitter during this period has been Kyle Tucker, with 6 hits, 6 runs, 8 RBIs, 3 home runs, and a batting average of .316.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Astros are favored to win this game. However, the Nationals' strong offensive performance in terms of team batting average could pose a challenge for the Astros' pitcher, Justin Verlander, who is projected to struggle with hits and walks. It will be interesting to see how MacKenzie Gore, with his high strikeout rate, matches up against the Astros' offense, which ranks fifth for the least strikeouts in MLB.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. According to the current odds, the Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +150, implying a win probability of 39%. The Astros, with a moneyline of -170, are the betting favorites with a 61% win probability. The Nationals have a low implied team total of 3.73 runs, while the Astros have a high implied team total of 4.77 runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to the average pitcher, Justin Verlander has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording an extra 6.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Washington (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (47% compared to 40.5% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Joey Gallo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 50 away games (+20.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Astros vs Nationals Prediction: Astros 5.18 - Nationals 3.86

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