Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/21/2024

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristian Javier - Astros
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 -120, Nationals 1.5 100
• Money Line: Astros -190, Nationals 165
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 63%
• Washington Nationals - 37%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 61.22%
• Washington Nationals - 38.78%

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

The Washington Nationals are set to host the Houston Astros at Nationals Park on April 21, 2024, in an Interleague matchup. The Nationals, with a record of 9-11 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Astros, with a record of 7-15, are struggling with a terrible season.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker, who has started one game this year and holds a 1-0 record with a 3.60 ERA. Despite his solid ERA, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Parker one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his xERA and FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Astros, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier, who has started four games this year and holds a 2-0 record with an impressive 1.54 ERA. While Javier is considered a below-average pitcher by advanced-stat Power Rankings, his low-strikeout style may work in his favor against the Nationals' offense, which ranks second in the least strikeouts in MLB.

The Nationals' offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB this season, but they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking sixth in the league. However, they struggle in the power department, ranking 29th in team home runs. In contrast, the Astros' offense is considered one of the best in MLB, ranking third overall and ninth in team home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Nationals rank as the second-worst in MLB, while the Astros sit in the middle of the pack at 14th. This could be a significant advantage for the Astros if the game comes down to relief pitching.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 63%, while the Nationals are the underdogs with a 37% win probability. The Astros also have a higher implied team total of 5.14 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.86 runs.

Overall, the Nationals face an uphill battle against the Astros, who have a stronger offense and a more reliable bullpen. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. The Nationals will look to defy the odds and secure a victory at home, while the Astros aim to continue their winning ways and improve their struggling season.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Cristian Javier's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (60.4% vs. 41.6% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Bats such as Luis Garcia with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristian Javier who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 96 games (+18.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 47 away games (+19.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Astros vs Nationals Prediction: Astros 5.59 - Nationals 4.16

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