Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/20/2024

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 -110, Nationals 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Astros -175, Nationals 155
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 62%
• Washington Nationals - 38%

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 20, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. The Nationals will be the home team for this interleague matchup. Both teams are having a tough season, with the Nationals holding an 8-11 record and the Astros at 7-14.

The Nationals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams, who has had a solid season so far. Williams has started three games, boasting a perfect 2-0 record with an impressive ERA of 3.45. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Williams is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, suggesting that his success may be due to some luck.

Opposing Williams on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Ronel Blanco for the Astros. Blanco has also started three games this season and has been performing exceptionally well with a 2-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 0.86. However, similar to Williams, Blanco's peripheral indicators, such as his xFIP, suggest that he may regress in future performances.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Astros have a significant advantage over the Nationals. The Astros currently rank as the third-best offense in MLB, while the Nationals sit at the twentieth spot. However, it is worth noting that the Nationals have a higher team batting average, ranking sixth in the league.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Nationals are at a disadvantage, ranking as the second-worst bullpen in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Astros have a more average bullpen, ranking fourteenth.

The betting odds heavily favor the Astros, with a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 62%. In contrast, the Nationals are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Based on the current odds, the Astros have a high implied team total of 5.09 runs, while the Nationals have an average implied team total of 3.91 runs. This suggests that the Astros are expected to have a stronger offensive performance in this game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Because of Trevor Williams's large platoon split, Jose Altuve will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz grades out as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams has averaged 91.4 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Eddie Rosario is apt to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Astros vs Nationals Prediction: Astros 5.44 - Nationals 3.99

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