Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 9/10/2025
There are playoff stakes when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros on Wednesday night. The Blue Jays won the first matchup between these division leaders last night. Toronto is favored to win again tonight but we should be in for another close game between these American League leaders. Here, I give you my thoughts on this game, along with my Astros vs Blue Jays prediction.
Our Astros vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Blue Jays moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Head-to-Head: Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date and Time: Wednesday, September 10, 2025, 7:07 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jason Alexander vs Jose Berrios
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Toronto won the first game of this series in extra innings on Tuesday. The Blue Jays are trying to hold off the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East and wins like that are huge for their chances of holding onto the division lead.
- Houston’s lead in the AL West is down to one game going into Wednesday’s play. The Seattle Mariners have won four games in a row and they are catching up to Houston quickly. The Astros and Mariners could be tied in the AL West standings by the end of tonight depending on the results of each team’s games.
Pitching breakdown
- Jose Berrios is going to take the mound for the Blue Jays in this contest. He is 9-5 with a 4.02 ERA entering this start and he has done a nice job of overcoming a high walk rate to limit damage from opposing offenses.
- Jason Alexander is on the hill for the Astros in this game. He relies on grounders and weak contact. The key is early-count strikes to avoid hitter’s counts for Springer, Guerrero Jr., and Bichette. Toronto’s lineup punishes mistakes up in the zone.
Recent team streaks
- Houston has dropped two straight games and four of their last five.
- The Blue Jays ended a two-game losing streak with their win over Houston on Tuesday.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Home run | George Springer | Over 0.5 HR |
| Strikeouts | Jason Alexander | Under 4.5 Ks |
| Total bases | Bo Bichette | Over 1.5 TB |
| Total bases | José Altuve | Over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: Astros lead 3-1 after Toronto defeated them last night.
- The home teams have won all four games played between these teams this year.
Astros vs Blue Jays Model Projection
Score Projection: Astros 4 – Blue Jays 5
Win Probability: Astros 44%, Blue Jays 56%
Final Thoughts
The Toronto Blue Jays should be able to win a second straight game against the Houston Astros on Wednesday night. Berrios is pitching very well for Toronto and that should continue at home, where Toronto is 46-24 on the season. We could very well see the Astros tied at the top of the AL West with Seattle by the end of the night, thanks in part to the Blue Jays defeating them here.
