Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 9/9/2025
The Houston Astros will visit the Toronto Blue Jays in the first game of a three-game series on Tuesday night. Both of these teams are in first place in their respective divisions coming into this series and are trying to hold off challenges from the teams right below them. Here, I break down this American League matchup and bring you my Astros vs Blue Jays prediction from Rogers Centre.
Our Astros vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 9, 2025, 7:07 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia vs Jose Berrios
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Toronto’s home dominance has been a constant, with a 45-24 home mark entering September and a balanced lineup that ranks near the top in average and on-base percentage.
- Houston swept Toronto in their April series in Texas and now looks to quiet a hot Jays offense at a park that boosts right-handed power.
- Bo Bichette exited the September 6 game after a collision and sat out September 7. He is expected to play for Toronto tonight.
- Both teams have a two-game lead in their respective divisions and a loss here would potentially move these teams closer to falling closer to relinquishing their division leads.
Pitching matchup
Luis Garcia is on the bump fo rthe Astros in this game. He is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA so far this season. Garcia has pitched just six innings so far this year and has allowed two home runs over that span. He will look to avoid giving up quite as many home runs in this contest to help the Astros get a much-needed win.
Jose Berrios enters this start at 9-5 with a 4.02 ERA. Berrios is a different pitcher at Rogers Centre, often sharper with his four-seam fastball and slurve, and the Jays’ defense behind him has improved in the second half. Keeping the ball off the barrel against Altuve and Alvarez is pivotal. If Berrios holds first-pitch strike leverage and avoids deep counts against the heart of Houston’s order, he can get deep into this game.
Recent team streaks
- The Astros have lost three of their last four games and have allowed the Seattle Mariners to get back into the AL West race.
- Toronto has dropped two games in a row and just two games ahead of the New York Yankees.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Line |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Bo Bichette | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Jose Altuve | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| Jose Berrios | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Astros hold a 3-0 lead in their season series against the Blue Jays.
- Houston has outscored the Blue Jays 15-2 so far this season.
Astros vs Blue Jays Model Projection
Score Projection: Astros 3 – Blue Jays 4
Win Probability: Astros 45%, Blue Jays 55%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this contest is for the under to cash from Rogers Centre. Berrios has pitched well this season and should do it again here. And with the Astros doing such a good job of shutting down the Jays in their first series of the year, I think there is a solid chance of the under cashing North of the border tonight.
