Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 7/4/2024

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros face off at Rogers Centre on July 4, 2024, in the fourth game of their series. The Blue Jays, with a 39-47 record, are struggling this season, while the Astros are faring slightly better with a 44-42 record. This American League matchup will feature Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Framber Valdez for the Astros.

Chris Bassitt, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid this season, boasting a 3.24 ERA over 17 starts. However, his 4.04 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky and could see some regression. Bassitt’s projections from the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, indicate he’ll go 6.1 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 5.3 batters. Despite these solid numbers, the Blue Jays' 26th-ranked bullpen could pose challenges in the later innings.

On the other side, Framber Valdez, a left-handed pitcher, has a 4.11 ERA over 14 starts. His 3.55 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and may perform better going forward. Valdez is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 4.5 batters. Valdez’s groundball tendencies could neutralize the Blue Jays’ lack of power, as Toronto ranks 25th in team home runs this season.

Offensively, the Astros hold a clear edge. They rank 7th in overall offense, 1st in team batting average, and 7th in team home runs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 17th overall but struggles with a 22nd-ranked batting average and 25th in home runs. Over the past week, George Springer has been a bright spot for the Blue Jays, hitting .429 with an impressive 1.491 OPS. For the Astros, Yordan Alvarez has been on fire, posting a .500 batting average and a 1.698 OPS in the last week.

Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Blue Jays’ moneyline at -105 and the Astros at -115. The implied team totals are 4.20 runs for Toronto and 4.30 for Houston, indicating a slight edge for the Astros. Given the current form and statistical projections, the Astros appear to have a slight advantage going into this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (53.2 compared to 46.9% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Houston's 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the majors: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt turned in a great performance in his previous GS and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season's 92.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+7.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.58 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.35

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