Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/7/2024

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros
  • Jose Urena - Rangers

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers will host the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field on August 7, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rangers are currently struggling with a 54-60 record, sitting at 4th in the American League West and facing an uphill battle for relevance in the playoff race. In contrast, the Astros are faring better at 58-55, positioned 3rd in the division, but also fighting to stay in contention.

In their last outing, the Rangers fell to the Astros, who showcased a solid performance that may have shifted momentum their way. Now, both teams will be looking to capitalize on their respective strengths in this third game of the series.

Jose Urena is projected to start for the Rangers, bringing a mixed bag of results this season. He has a Win/Loss record of 3-6 with a solid ERA of 3.70, but his advanced metrics suggest he might be due for a downturn. Notably, Urena's xFIP of 4.32 indicates he has been somewhat lucky, and his low strikeout rate (16.4 K%) could be problematic against the Astros' offense, which ranks as the 11th best in MLB.

On the other side, the Astros will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound. Kikuchi has had a challenging season with a 4-9 record, but his ERA of 4.67 belies his underlying talent, as his xFIP of 3.34 suggests he has been unlucky. With a strikeout projection of 5.7 batters today, he could find success against a Rangers offense that ranks 23rd overall and has struggled throughout the season.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors can expect an exciting showdown, especially with the Rangers boasting an implied team total of 4.39 runs, highlighting their potential to put runs on the board.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Yusei Kikuchi has used his slider 8.6% less often this year (17.4%) than he did last year (26%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jose Altuve has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Over his last 3 games started, Jose Urena has seen a significant decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2150 rpm over the whole season to 2052 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Corey Seager has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 96.9-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 110 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.72 vs Texas Rangers 4.54

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