Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/18/2025

On May 18, the Texas Rangers will host the Houston Astros in an American League West showdown, marking the fourth game in this crucial series. The Rangers are currently navigating a solid season with a record of 25-22, placing them just above average. Meanwhile, the Astros are treading water at 23-22, reflecting an average performance thus far. In their last outing on May 17, the Rangers triumphed over the Astros with a convincing 5-1 victory.

Jack Leiter is projected to start for the Rangers, bringing his 3-2 record and average 4.34 ERA to the mound. While his statistics suggest he’s had a bit of luck this season, projections indicate he’s likely to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs. His high flyball rate could be advantageous against a Houston offense that's struggled for power, ranking 5th least in MLB with only 37 home runs this season.

On the other hand, Framber Valdez will take the ball for Houston. Despite a 2-4 record, Valdez boasts a solid 3.54 ERA and has shown his ability to go deep into games, averaging 6.3 innings pitched. However, his projections also suggest he might face challenges, particularly with allowing 5.5 hits and 1.9 walks.

The Rangers' offense, ranking 25th in MLB, faces a tough task against Valdez. However, with their best hitter in solid form—recording a .400 batting average over the past week—the Rangers could surprise the betting markets. The current moneyline for Texas sits at +115, indicating some potential value for bettors as they look to capitalize on their newfound momentum against a historically strong rival.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will hold the advantage matching up with 9 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the other side in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jake Meyers has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros hitters as a unit rank among the worst in the league this year ( worst) when it comes to their 88.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter's 96.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 97th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wyatt Langford has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.9-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.62 Units / 18% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 34% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.36, Texas Rangers 3.67

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

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