Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/16/2025

The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros clash in the second game of their series on May 16, 2025, after the Rangers secured a narrow victory in yesterday's matchup. Currently, the Rangers sit at 24-21, enjoying an above-average season, while the Astros are at 22-21, marking a more average performance so far.

On the mound for the Rangers is Nathan Eovaldi, who has been impressive this season with a 4-2 record and a stellar ERA of 1.78. His ability to generate ground balls (50% GB rate) could work in his favor against the Astros' offense, which has struggled with power, ranking 5th least in MLB with only 36 home runs. Eovaldi's projections suggest he will pitch around 6.2 innings while allowing just 2.3 earned runs, making him a challenging opponent for Houston.

In contrast, the Astros will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., whose season has been rocky with a 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 15.75. Although he has a high strikeout potential, McCullers has also struggled with walks (23.1% BB rate), and the Rangers' low-walk offense could mitigate his chances of finding success. His projections indicate he might pitch an average of 5.2 innings, giving up approximately 2.7 earned runs.

Despite the Rangers' offense ranking 24th in MLB and their bullpen sitting at 26th, they are favored to win this matchup with a moneyline of -180. This may stem from their strong starting pitching and the Astros' struggles, particularly with McCullers on the mound. Given the overall dynamics of this game, the Rangers appear poised to take another win.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Lance McCullers Jr. projects for 2.3 walks in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Hitting 2 homers over the last 7 days, Jeremy Pena has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Houston Astros bats collectively rank near the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( worst) when it comes to their 88.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 8.4% more often this season (71.1%) than he did last season (62.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.82 Units / 18% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 3.78, Texas Rangers 4.54

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lance McCullers Jr. - Astros
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

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