Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Pick – 9/7/2025
The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will finish up their three-game weekend series on Sunday. The final game of this Texas showdown will decide who wins the series after both teams grabbed one of the first two contests. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup from Globe Life Field and give you my Astros vs Rangers prediction from deep in the heart of Texas.
Our Astros vs Rangers Pick
- Pick: Rangers moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Head-to-Head: Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers
- Date and Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 2:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia vs Patrick Corbin
- Stadium: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: Rangers Sports Network in DFW, Space City Home Network in Houston
Key Storylines
- These teams are both in competitive playoff races. The Astros are 3.5 games ahead of the Mariners for first place in the AL West. Texas is 1.5 games behind the Mariners in the race for the final AL Wild Card spot. That makes this a huge game for both teams and not just because it will decide the outcome of this three-game set.
- Lineup health: Adolis Garcia is on the IL for the Rangers and his power bat being out will leave a sizable void for the Rangers.
Pitching comparison
Astros RHP Luis Garcia was recently activated and is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA over 6 innings in his return. Expect a plan in the 85-95 pitch range if efficient. Garcia’s career profile shows above-average strikeout potential with a fastball-cutter combo and a slider that can neutralize righty power.
Rangers LHP Patrick Corbin is 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA. The lefty has leaned more on command and weak contact than missing bat, but home runs can be a problem if he is behind in counts. Houston’s best swings versus lefties come from Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña, and even with lineup turnover, this offense has posted a winning record against southpaws in 2025.
Recent team streaks
- The Astros ended a two-game losing streak by beating the Rangers on Saturday.
- Texas has lost three of its last four games and needs to end their current run of poor form to help their Wild Card chances.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Jeremy Peña | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Luis Garcia | Under 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Rangers hold a 5-4 lead in the season series against the Astros this season.
- The over/under is 1-1 in the current series between these teams.
Astros vs Rangers Model Projection
Score Projection: Rangers 4 – Astros 3
Win Probability: Astros 50%, Rangers 50%
Final Thoughts
I project this as a close game that could go either way. I recommend taking the Rangers at a plus price here, as the superior consistency of Corbin is something we can trust more than the unproven Luis Garcia. This could end up being one of the most entertaining games of the day in MLB and I’ll go with the underdog.
