Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Pick – 5/15/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 15, 2025, both teams sit just a game apart in the AL West standings. The Rangers hold a record of 23-21, while the Astros are at 22-20. Each team has experienced an above-average season so far, but the Rangers' struggles with a lowly 24th-ranked offense may haunt them against the Astros, who rank 13th.

Both squads are coming off strong performances, but the focus will be on the starting pitchers. Jacob deGrom is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, entering this game ranked 12th among MLB’s starting pitchers which classifies him as elite. He boasts a solid 3-1 record this year with an impressive 2.72 ERA. However, his projections indicate he may be lucky this season, with a 3.35 xFIP suggesting potential regression. He averages 5.8 innings pitched, projecting to allow 1.9 earned runs and strike out 6.5 batters.

On the other side, Hunter Brown will start for the Astros, coming off an outstanding 6-1 record and a staggering 1.48 ERA, making him the 13th best pitcher per the advanced stats. While he also carries a projection for 5.8 innings pitched, he may face trouble with walks, averaging 1.9 per start.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, expect a closely contested matchup where the Rangers could have the advantage, especially if deGrom can keep his luck afloat. The current moneyline favors Texas at -125, making them slight favorites in what looks to be a tight contest.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has gone to his cutter 11.7% less often this year (5.2%) than he did last year (16.9%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Extreme flyball hitters like Victor Caratini usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jacob deGrom's 96.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 95th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wyatt Langford's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (18.3°) is quite a bit better than his 11.5° mark last year.

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 3.54, Texas Rangers 3.99

• Date: May 15, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers

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