Houston Astros VS Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 115, Rangers 1.5 -135
• Money Line: Astros -140, Rangers 120
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 56%
• Texas Rangers - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 57.6%
• Texas Rangers - 42.4%

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers are set to host the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field on April 8, 2024. The Rangers have been enjoying a great season so far with a record of 6-3, while the Astros have struggled, sitting at 3-7.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has been solid this season. Heaney has started one game with an impressive ERA of 1.93. However, his 3.08 xFIP suggests some regression may be coming. On the other hand, the Astros will send lefty Framber Valdez to the mound. Valdez has started two games and boasts an excellent ERA of 2.19. Like Heaney, his 3.75 xFIP indicates some room for regression.

The Rangers' offense has been a force to be reckoned with, ranking as the second-best in MLB. They have shown great power, ranking fifth in home runs. However, their stolen base ranking of 25th leaves room for improvement. On the other side, the Astros' offense ranks seventh, with Jose Altuve standing out as their best hitter this season.

Despite the Rangers' strong offense, Heaney's high-strikeout ability may be neutralized by the Astros' low-strikeout tendencies. Meanwhile, Valdez's groundball pitching may pose a challenge for the Rangers' power-hitting lineup. However, Valdez's high-walk rate could give the patient Rangers an advantage.

According to THE BAT X, the Rangers are considered underdogs, with a projected win probability of 42%. The Astros hold the favorite status, with a win probability of 58%. The implied team totals for the game are 4.43 runs for the Rangers and 5.07 runs for the Astros.

While the Rangers have been performing well and their offense has been outstanding, the Astros are seeking to turn their season around. With the projected advantage on their side, the Astros will aim to capitalize on Valdez's strong performance and continue their pursuit of a victory.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Jose Abreu hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Andrew Heaney will average a total of 3.03 earned runs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Hitters such as Marcus Semien with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jonah Heim (the Rangers's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 101 of their last 170 games (+23.43 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 68 away games (+17.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros 5.41 vs Texas Rangers 4.34

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.