Houston Astros VS Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
• Run Line: Astros 1.5 -190, Rangers -1.5 165
• Money Line: Astros -105, Rangers -115
• Total (Over/Under):10 -110

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 49%
• Texas Rangers - 51%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 44.62%
• Texas Rangers - 55.38%

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 7, 2024, the Texas Rangers will take on the Houston Astros in an American League West matchup at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, who hold a 6-2 record this season, are having a great campaign, while the Astros are struggling with a 2-7 record.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning, who has been a solid performer this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Dunning is ranked as the #240 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is one of the worst in the league. In his last start, Dunning pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, striking out 7, and giving up 3 hits and 4 walks.

Opposing Dunning will be right-handed pitcher Ronel Blanco, who has started 1 game this season. Blanco has been impressive so far, with a 0.00 ERA and a 3.60 xFIP, although this peripheral indicator suggests he may regress in future performances. In his last start, Blanco pitched a complete game shutout, which is remarkable and must be mentioned.

The Rangers boast a potent offense, ranking as the 4th best in MLB this season. They have shown their prowess by ranking 2nd in team batting average and 5th in home runs. Their best hitter, Adolis Garcia, has contributed significantly with 6 runs, 11 RBIs, 4 home runs, and a .265 batting average.

On the other hand, the Astros offense has struggled, ranking 19th in MLB. However, they have displayed some power, ranking 9th in team home runs. Jose Altuve has been their standout hitter, boasting a .378 batting average and a 1.155 OPS.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers have a projected win probability of 55% for this game, while the Astros have a projected win probability of 45%. The current odds imply a close game, with the Rangers favored at -115 and the Astros at -105.

The Rangers offense is expected to score 5.49 runs on average in this game, while the Astros are projected to score 5.16 runs. These high projected run totals indicate a potentially high-scoring affair.

Considering the pitching matchup, Dunning's high-strikeout ability may be neutralized by the Astros' low-strikeout offense. Meanwhile, Blanco's high-groundball tendencies might trouble the strong power-hitting Rangers lineup that ranks 5th in home runs.

With the Rangers having a higher projected win probability than the implied win probability, there may be value in betting on the Rangers. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ronel Blanco is projected to throw 84 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Dane Dunning will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Altuve today... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Dunning's large platoon split.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Dane Dunning will hold the platoon advantage against 7 opposing bats in today's game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jonah Heim (the Rangers's expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 171 games (+24.63 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 77 away games (+19.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros 5.16 vs Texas Rangers 5.49

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.