Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Houston Astros at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the first game of their series. Currently, the Rays sit at 21-25, struggling in a season that has not met expectations, while the Astros are performing slightly better at 24-22. The stakes are high for the Rays, who hope to turn their season around against a competitive opponent.

This game features two starting pitchers with contrasting narratives: Ryan Pepiot for the Rays and Colton Gordon for the Astros. Pepiot enters with a solid 3.93 ERA and is ranked as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB, which indicates he's been above average despite a 2-5 record. However, his 4.72 FIP suggests he might have had a bit of luck on his side this season.

On the other hand, Gordon has struggled, showcasing a 6.23 ERA and being one of the least effective pitchers according to the projections. He has only started one game this season, which raises concerns about his ability to handle the Rays' lineup.

The Rays offense ranks 23rd in MLB, which has been a significant part of their struggles. They have been particularly weak in power, ranking 25th in home runs, which could play into the hands of Gordon, a high-flyball pitcher. In contrast, the Astros' offense sits at 18th overall, but they have the capability to capitalize on any mistakes made by Pepiot.

With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be closely contested, and the Rays have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs. This gives them a favorable outlook against an Astros team that has struggled to hit home runs. As both teams vie for a pivotal win, the Rays will need to harness their strengths and find a way to overcome their offensive limitations.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Because groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Colton Gordon and his 37.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in today's outing facing 3 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Houston Astros batters collectively rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( worst) as far as their 88.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ryan Pepiot has utilized his secondary pitches 8.1% more often this year (57.5%) than he did last year (49.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Tampa Bay Rays offense projects to score the 5th-most runs of all teams on the slate today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.60 Units / 91% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.74, Tampa Bay Rays 5.25

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colton Gordon - Astros
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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