Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 5/21/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Houston Astros on May 21, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, there’s a palpable sense of urgency for the Rays, who currently sit at 22-26 this season. This matchup marks the third game in their series, and the Rays will look to turn their fortunes around against an Astros squad that has been performing well, boasting a record of 25-23. In their previous encounter, the Rays edged out the Astros, adding pressure on Houston to respond.

On the mound, the Rays are set to start Taj Bradley, who has struggled with a 4.80 ERA this season and a Win/Loss record of 3-3. Despite being ranked 98th among starting pitchers in MLB, projections indicate he might have been unlucky this season, as his xERA suggests he could improve. However, he faces a daunting challenge against Houston's Hunter Brown, an elite pitcher ranked 13th in MLB with a stellar 1.43 ERA and a 6-2 record.

Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in MLB, struggling to find consistency at the plate. Their power numbers are particularly concerning, as they sit 26th in home runs this season. In contrast, while the Astros rank 18th in overall offense, they possess a more balanced attack and have shown the ability to generate runs when needed.

With the Rays entering as underdogs with a moneyline of +115, betting markets suggest this will be a close game. The game total is set at a reasonable 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has utilized his cut-fastball 12.1% less often this season (4.8%) than he did last season (16.9%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In the last week, Christian Walker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 28.6%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all SPs, Taj Bradley's fastball velocity of 95.7 mph ranks in the 88th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ben Rortvedt's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.2-mph average last year has decreased to 81.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+7.62 Units / 19% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.10 Units / 40% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.97, Tampa Bay Rays 3.75

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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