Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 8/14/2024

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros on August 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in an interesting position. The Rays, sitting at 59-60, are having an average season, while the Astros hold a solid 64-55 record, indicating above-average performance. Tampa Bay is currently not contending for a playoff spot, which adds a layer of urgency to their remaining games.

In their last matchup, the Astros came out on top, continuing their recent strong play, while the Rays are looking to bounce back. Zack Littell is set to take the mound for Tampa Bay, despite his struggles this season, holding a 5-8 record and a 4.11 ERA. Although he ranks as the 118th best starting pitcher in baseball, he faces a challenging opponent in Ronel Blanco, who boasts a 9-6 record and an impressive 3.02 ERA. However, the projections suggest that Blanco has been somewhat lucky, as indicated by his 4.17 xFIP, which is higher than his ERA.

The matchup presents a classic case of a decent pitcher facing a potent offense. The Astros rank 10th in MLB offensively, highlighted by their 2nd best batting average, while the Rays struggle at 23rd in team batting average and 26th in home runs. Tampa Bay's best hitter over the last week, Taylor Walls, has shown some promise with a .333 batting average, but the squad as a whole lacks the firepower necessary to consistently challenge a pitcher of Blanco's caliber.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, favoring the Astros slightly with a moneyline of -120. Given the current form and offensive capabilities, Houston appears to have the edge, but Tampa Bay’s strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, could play a crucial role in keeping the game competitive.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to average, Ronel Blanco has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Over the last 7 days, Jon Singleton's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell has used his four-seamer 7.1% less often this season (20.8%) than he did last season (27.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Ben Rortvedt's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 77.2-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 119 games (+22.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 102 games (+17.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.23 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.33

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