Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 8/12/2024

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to clash with the Houston Astros on August 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of competitive seasons. The Rays sit at 59-58, showing an average performance, while the Astros boast a record of 62-55, marking them as slightly above average. This matchup at Tropicana Field marks the first game of their series, making it crucial for both teams to set the tone.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taj Bradley, who has been solid with a 3.07 ERA this season, although his xERA of 3.76 suggests he might not maintain this level of performance moving forward. With a 6-6 record over 16 starts, he’s shown flashes of potential but faces a tough task against an Astros lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in team batting average. Compounding the challenge, Bradley is a high-strikeout pitcher going against an Astros offense that has the 3rd fewest strikeouts in the league, potentially neutralizing his biggest strength.

On the other side, the Astros will send elite lefty Framber Valdez to the mound. Valdez, who has a 3.46 ERA and a stellar 11-5 record, is also projected to pitch longer than Bradley, averaging 6.1 innings per start. His ability to induce ground balls could play to his advantage against a Rays offense that has struggled with power, ranking 26th in home runs this season.

The game total is set low at 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a closely contested matchup. With the Rays' bullpen ranked 8th and the Astros' at 5th, both teams have the relief options to back their starters effectively. Given the projections and recent performances, Houston appears to hold the edge, but the Rays will aim to leverage their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (94.6 mph) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (93.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Over the past week, Chas McCormick's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Recording 92.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Taj Bradley places in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.7 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games at home (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.15 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.22

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