Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 4/14/2025

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Houston Astros on April 14, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, each sitting at 7-8 and struggling to find their footing this season. The Cardinals have been showcasing their offense, currently ranked 4th in MLB, and their solid batting average of .290 ranks 2nd overall. In contrast, the Astros' offense has faltered significantly, landing at 25th in MLB, with a disappointing .233 batting average.

In their most recent game, the Cardinals’ offense had a strong showing, and they're looking to carry that momentum as they host the first game of this interleague series at Busch Stadium. Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. His current form includes a 2-0 record over three starts, although his ERA stands at 4.50, indicating an average performance. However, his 3.07 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. Gray is known for his control, walking just 3.2% of batters, which may play to his advantage against a patient Astros lineup that ranks 6th in walks.

On the other side, Framber Valdez, a left-handed pitcher for the Astros, has been performing exceptionally well with a 2.50 ERA and a Power Ranking of 11th among MLB starters, signaling elite status. However, his 3.03 xFIP suggests a potential regression. Valdez is projected to pitch 6.1 innings and allow an average of 2.3 earned runs, indicating a tough matchup for an Astros offense struggling to generate runs.

With a game total currently set at 7.5 runs, bettors should consider the Cardinals' offensive prowess against Valdez's solid performance. The Cardinals' projected team total is low at 3.66 runs, but given their recent offensive output and the ability to capitalize on Valdez’s potential vulnerabilities, they may exceed expectations in this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has utilized his curveball 5% more often this year (36.4%) than he did last season (31.4%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jake Meyers has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .287 mark is considerably lower than his .323 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.6% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jordan Walker has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 9.5% rate last season has lowered to 3.4% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the St. Louis Cardinals in today's game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .339 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 73% ROI)

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.01, St. Louis Cardinals 3.61

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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