Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/20/2024

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros prepare for game two of their series on July 20, 2024, both teams are keen on securing crucial wins in this tight American League West matchup. The Mariners hold a slight edge in the standings with a 52-46 record, while the Astros trail closely at 50-46.

The Mariners will look to continue their momentum with George Kirby on the mound. Kirby, ranked the #13 best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, has had an impressive season thus far. With a 3.29 ERA and a notable 7-7 Win/Loss record over 20 starts, Kirby has shown elite control, walking a minuscule 2.8% of batters faced. He's projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 6.3 batters on average today.

Facing Kirby will be Framber Valdez for the Astros. Valdez, the #25 best starting pitcher in MLB, brings a solid 3.66 ERA and an 8-5 Win/Loss record across 16 starts. Despite his high ranking, Valdez has struggled somewhat with control, projecting to allow 2.0 walks and 5.6 hits, which could be problematic against a Mariners team that ranks 10th in home runs.

Offensively, the Mariners have had their share of struggles, ranking 27th in overall offensive power and last in team batting average. However, their power remains a bright spot, as they are 10th in home runs. In contrast, Houston boasts the 9th best offense, leading MLB in team batting average and ranking 9th in home runs.

Betting markets suggest this will be a close game, with the Mariners' moneyline at -120, implying a 52% win probability. With Kirby's elite pitching and the Mariners' home advantage at T-Mobile Park, Seattle has a slight edge, but the Astros' potent lineup and reliable bullpen ensure this will be a tightly contested affair.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this year (93.2 mph) below where it was last year (94.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

When it comes to his batting average, Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck this year. His .242 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .280.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby has tallied 17.6 outs per start this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 30 games (+16.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 56% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.65 vs Seattle Mariners 3.92

Get daily MLB picks here.