Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 7/19/2025

The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros in a pivotal AL West showdown on Saturday night. The Mariners won the first game of this series in convincing fashion to pull closer to the Astros in the AL West race. A second straight win for Seattle would move them to within three games of the first-place Astros. Here, I break down this AL West contest and make my Astros vs Mariners prediction from the Pacific Northwest.

Our Astros vs Mariners Pick

• Pick: Mariners Moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
• Date & Time: Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Lance McCullers Jr. vs Logan Evans
• Stadium: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Broadcast: MLB Network, ROOT Sports NW, SCHN

Key Storylines

• AL West Race: The Astros hold a four-game lead over the Mariners heading into tonight’s action. But that lead was bigger not too long ago. A recent winning streak for the Mariners and some struggles for Houston have tightened things up in this division.
• Pitching Matchup: Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr. is battling to regain form after injuries. He is 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA for the season. Seattle’s Logan Evans has provided Seattle with reliable pitching this year. He is 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA.
• Bullpen Usage: The bullpen of the Mariners had the upper hand in the opening game of this series. Seattle held the Astros to just one run on Friday night and will look for a similar showing from their bullpen tonight.
• Recent Team Streaks: The Mariners have won four games in a row. Houston has dropped each of their last two games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The season series between these teams is tied 4-4 heading into tonight’s game.
• Seattle has scored six runs or more in each game of their four-game winning streak.
• The Astros have been held to one run in each of their last two games.

Astros vs Mariners Model Projection

Score Projection: Seattle 5 – Houston 4

Win Probability: Seattle 56%, Houston 44%

Final Thoughts

There is no question that the Seattle Mariners are playing better baseball than the Houston Astros right now. I expect that to continue in this game, thanks in large part to the consistency of Evans on the mound compared to the inconsistent McCullers. Look for Seattle to get a fifth straight win here and to pull within three games of the Astros in the AL West.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.