Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Yu Darvish - Padres

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On September 16, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Houston Astros at Petco Park in an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are firmly in the playoff conversation, with the Padres holding a solid record of 85-65 while the Astros sit at 81-68. The Padres are currently ranked 2nd in Power Rankings for their bullpen, a key advantage as they navigate through the final stretch of the season.

Yu Darvish is set to take the mound for the Padres, coming off a strong performance this year with a 3.52 ERA and a 5-3 win-loss record over 13 starts. While Darvish has been solid, he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.4 per game, which could be a factor against the Astros, who rank 4th in the league for least walks drawn. His ability to limit damage will be tested against a potent Astros lineup that ranks 3rd in team batting average.

On the opposing side, Spencer Arrighetti takes the hill for Houston, but he has had a rough season with a 4.72 ERA and a 7-12 record across 26 starts. The projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, but his high strikeout rate of 27.4% may not be enough against the Padres, who have the league's lowest strikeout rate. This could hinder Arrighetti's effectiveness, especially given the Padres' offensive prowess, ranked 1st in team batting average and 7th overall in MLB.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets view this matchup as a close contest, reflected in the Padres' moneyline at -135 and the Astros at +115. San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on fire lately, boasting a .400 batting average over the past week, which could provide the spark needed to exploit Arrighetti's vulnerabilities. As the two teams clash, expect an intense battle with playoff implications hanging in the balance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti was rolling in his last outing and notched 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.9) implies that Kyle Tucker has been very fortunate this year with his 41.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Yu Darvish to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Donovan Solano is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 49 games (+13.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+18.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 away games (+25.45 Units / 127% ROI)

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.20 vs San Diego Padres 4.25

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