Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/5/2025

On June 5, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Houston Astros at PNC Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Astros enter this matchup with a record of 33-28, showcasing an above-average performance this season. In contrast, the Pirates sit at a disappointing 23-39, struggling to find consistency.

Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller, projected to start, has had a rough year with a 1-7 record and an ERA of 3.73. However, his 3.21 FIP indicates that he has faced some bad luck, potentially hinting at better days ahead. Keller's average projections suggest he will pitch approximately 6.0 innings, allowing around 3.1 earned runs, but his high projection of 6.6 hits could prove detrimental against a solid Astros lineup.

On the other side, Houston's Framber Valdez is having a stellar season, boasting a 5-4 record and a great ERA of 3.12. Valdez's elite ranking as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB and his ability to induce ground balls (58% GB rate) could create a favorable matchup against a Pirates offense that ranks 27th overall and has hit only 43 home runs this season, the 2nd least in MLB.

The game total is set low at 7.5 runs, and with the Pirates coming in as underdogs at +140, this matchup could provide value for those looking to capitalize on the potential for an upset, especially considering the projections suggest Keller might outperform expectations.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed batters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Yainer Diaz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Houston Astros offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.3-mph decline from last season's 94.5-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.64, Pittsburgh Pirates 3.93

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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