Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 6/3/2025

On June 3, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Houston Astros at PNC Park in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Pirates, currently sitting at 22-38, are having a rough season, while the Astros boast a record of 32-27, marking them as an above-average team this year. Recently, the Pirates’ Paul Skenes has been a bright spot, ranking as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 12 games this season, with an impressive ERA of 2.15, although his 3.07 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky.

In contrast, the Astros will send Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound. While McCullers Jr. has a solid strikeout rate of 28.6%, he has struggled this season with a 5.89 ERA and a 0-1 record over 5 starts. The projections indicate he may perform better going forward, given that his xFIP is 2.10 points lower than his ERA.

The Pirates offense ranks 27th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they sit 29th in team home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th. Meanwhile, the Astros' offense is more balanced, ranking 13th overall and 8th in batting average, though they are 27th in stolen bases.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, and the Pirates as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, there may be value in backing Pittsburgh. They will look to leverage Skenes' elite pitching against an Astros lineup that might struggle to capitalize on his strengths. This matchup presents a fascinating contrast between a budding star and a seasoned pitcher trying to find his form.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball batters, Lance McCullers Jr. and his 48% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in today's matchup squaring off against 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 24.8% more often this year (57.2%) than he did last season (32.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pittsburgh Pirates bats jointly rank 7th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 93.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.50 Units / 238% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 3.51, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.41

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lance McCullers Jr. - Astros
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

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