Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On May 24, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will face off against the Houston Astros at Oakland Coliseum. This American League West matchup features the struggling Athletics, who currently hold a record of 21-31, and the Astros, who are not faring much better with a record of 22-28 this season.

The Athletics will be the home team for this game, hoping to turn their fortunes around in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling, who has had a challenging season so far. Stripling has started 10 games with a win-loss record of 1-8 and an ERA of 5.19. However, his 4.42 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Astros will send their ace, Justin Verlander, to the mound. Verlander has started six games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.97. While his ERA is solid, his 5.22 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams. In their last games, the Athletics defeated the Rockies by a score of 10-9, while the Astros suffered a 2-1 loss to the Angels. The Athletics' offense has struggled this season, ranking 25th in MLB, while the Astros boast the 3rd best offense in the league.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Astros are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 61%. The Athletics, on the other hand, have a projected win probability of 39%. The current odds reflect this, with the Astros being the betting favorite at -165 and the Athletics as the underdog at +145.

The Athletics' best hitter this season has been Brent Rooker, who has recorded 32 RBIs and 11 home runs with a batting average of .286 and an OPS of .935. In their last seven games, Kyle McCann has been their standout hitter, with a batting average of .444 and an OPS of 1.250.

For the Astros, Kyle Tucker has been their top performer this season, with 36 runs, 36 RBIs, and 17 home runs. He also has 9 stolen bases, showcasing his all-around skills. In their last seven games, Tucker has continued his strong play, hitting .350 with a 1.519 OPS.

With the Astros' potent offense and the Athletics' struggles this season, the odds and projections heavily favor the Astros in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. The Athletics will look to defy the odds and turn their season around with a strong performance against their division rivals.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Chas McCormick has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of facing 6 same-handed bats in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.D. Davis's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 25.73 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.94 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics have 7 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Seth Brown, J.D. Davis, Max Schuemann, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+14.20 Units / 26% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.03 vs Oakland Athletics 3.7

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