Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/5/2024

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shawn Dubin - Astros
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros gear up for their matchup on July 5, 2024, at Target Field, both teams find themselves in a competitive season. The Twins, with a record of 49-38, are having a strong campaign and sit in a favorable position within the American League. Meanwhile, the Astros, at 45-42, are performing above average and look to close the gap in the standings.

The Twins will send Pablo Lopez to the mound, a right-hander who has had a mixed season. Lopez boasts a Win/Loss record of 8-6 and an ERA of 4.88, which is below average. However, his 3.17 xFIP, a key metric from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he's been unlucky and is likely to improve. Lopez is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 6.4 batters, and surrendering 1.3 walks. His high-strikeout ability will be put to the test against an Astros lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average and is the least strikeout-prone team in the league.

On the other side, the Astros will rely on Shawn Dubin, who has split his time between starting and relief appearances this season. Dubin's record stands at 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA, but his 4.05 xFIP indicates some bad luck. He's projected to pitch 4.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 3.5 batters, and walking 1.6. Dubin’s groundball tendencies (51% GB rate) could be a counter to the Twins’ powerful lineup, which ranks 6th in home runs.

Offensively, the Twins have shown their strength, ranking 9th overall, and 6th in home runs. However, they lag in stolen bases, ranking 23rd. Carlos Correa has been the standout over the last week, hitting .333 with a 1.122 OPS, contributing 2 home runs and 5 runs. The Astros, with the 6th best offense, lead in team batting average and are 7th in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been on fire, batting .478 with a 1.680 OPS, including 3 home runs and 11 RBIs over the past week.

In the bullpen battle, the Twins hold a significant edge, ranking 5th compared to the Astros' 12th. This could be crucial in a game where the Twins are favored with a moneyline of -155, reflecting an implied win probability of 59%. With the Astros as underdogs at +135, the Twins' strong bullpen and projected performance from Lopez give them an edge in this series opener.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

In his previous outing, Shawn Dubin performed well and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros have been the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Throwing 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Pablo Lopez ranks in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Byron Buxton has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 18 games (+14.70 Units / 65% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.80 Units / 70% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.1 vs Minnesota Twins 4.6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.