Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/5/2025

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Houston Astros at Target Field for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 2-5 and the Astros at 3-4. In their previous matchup, the Astros narrowly edged out the Twins in a close contest, underscoring the competitive yet challenging nature of both clubs this year.

Bailey Ober is set to take the mound for the Twins, despite his rough start to the season. Ober's record stands at 0-1 with a troubling ERA of 27.00, though his 7.63 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. Despite his struggles, the projections indicate he’ll pitch approximately 5.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and strike out about 5.4 batters, which marks a return to average performance.

Conversely, the Astros will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who boasts an impressive 1.50 ERA and a favorable 4.07 xFIP. Although his ERA is excellent, projections show he might be due for regression. Arrighetti is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing around 2.5 earned runs but struggles with walks, which could be an advantage for the Twins, who are the least walk-averse team in MLB.

With low implied team totals of 3.88 runs for the Twins and just 3.62 runs for the Astros, this matchup is projected to be closely contested, but the Twins may find some solace in their better recent performance against a pitcher like Arrighetti. This game should be one to watch as both teams look to shake off their early-season woes.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a notable edge over flyball batters, Spencer Arrighetti and his 36.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today's matchup facing 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Brendan Rodgers generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Houston Astros offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

With 8 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Bailey Ober should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Wallner's 17.1% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) is in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota's 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #25 offense in the majors since the start of last season by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 95 games (+15.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 145 games (+20.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 50% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.