Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 7/7/2024

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros are set to face off at Target Field on July 7, 2024. This matchup, the third game in their series, will feature Minnesota as the home team and Houston as the away team. The Twins are currently enjoying a strong season with a 50-39 record, placing them in the thick of the playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Astros, at 46-43, are also performing above average and remain in playoff contention.

Minnesota is projected to start right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richard, who has a 3.52 ERA but a 4.37 xFIP, indicating he may have been fortunate so far this season. Despite a respectable win-loss record of 3-1 over 14 starts, Woods Richard has struggled in various metrics, including projections to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.5 hits over an average of 5.0 innings today. His projected strikeout rate of 3.8 and walk rate of 1.5 are also concerning.

Houston counters with right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti's 6.13 ERA over 15 starts paints a grim picture, but his 4.41 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. With a 4-7 record, he is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs and 4.9 hits over an expected 4.8 innings today. His strikeout rate of 4.7 is below average, and his walk rate of 2.1 is a red flag.

Offensively, the Twins rank 6th in MLB in home runs, while boasting the 6th best offense overall, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Jose Miranda has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .652 with a 1.637 OPS, 15 hits, and 7 RBIs in six games. In contrast, the Astros feature the 5th best offense, leading MLB in team batting average. Yordan Alvarez has excelled recently, hitting .318 with three home runs and nine RBIs over his last seven games.

The Twins' bullpen ranks 5th in MLB, a stark contrast to the Astros' 12th place ranking. With Minnesota's potent offense and stronger bullpen, coupled with a starting pitcher who has so far outperformed his peripherals, the Twins are favored with a -130 moneyline, suggesting they have a 54% chance of winning. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation for a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti has averaged 13.8 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 8th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the last week, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's game, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.8% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (60.1% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Byron Buxton has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.312 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .325 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+10.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.01 vs Minnesota Twins 5.04

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