Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 8/5/2025
The Houston Astros and Miami Marlins will face off on Tuesday night at LoanDepot Park in Miami. The Astros won the opening game of this three-game set on the road and are in a pick ’em game here. Before these teams play for the second time, be sure to keep reading to get my analysis and my Astros vs Marlins prediction.
Our Astros vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Marlins Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins |
| Date & Time | August 5, 2025, 6:40 PM EDT |
| Starting Pitchers | Undecided (HOU) vs Cal Quantrill (MIA) |
| Stadium | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Broadcast | MLB.tv |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: The Marlins are going with Cal Quantrill on the mound in this game. Quantrill is 4-8 with a 4.79 ERA this year. Those numbers are far from ideal but Quantrill has been much better in recent starts than he had been earlier in the season. He will look to keep moving in the right direction here. Houston has yet to decide on a starter for this game.
Bullpen Usage: The Astros bullpen was impressive on Monday. They helped hold the Marlins to just two runs in the first game of this series. Houston’s bullpen is fourth in the league in bullpen ERA and the Marlins could struggle to play as well as the Astros in that facet of the game.
Team Momentum: The Astros snapped a three-game losing streak with their win in Miami last night. Miami had a five-game winning streak come to an end by dropping that series opener against the Astros.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Jose Altuve | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Kyle Stowers | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- Houston leads the season series against the Marlins 1-0.
- Monday’s game had 10 total runs and went over the total of 8.5 runs.
- Miami still has the best runline win percentage in baseball this season (60.4%).
Astros vs Marlins Model Projection
Projected Score: Marlins 5 – Astros 3
Win Probability: Astros 50% | Marlins 50%
Final Thoughts
The Astros did beat the Marlins on Monday night. But I think the Marlins get back on track with a win on Tuesday. Cal Quantrill has been pitching better of late for the Marlins and I think Houston’s pitching staff could be in for a rough day with an uncertain starting pitching situation. I will go with the Marlins to get back to .500 for the year with a victory at home.
